As the global economy accelerates towards electrification, clean energy and advanced manufacturing, metals are emerging as the backbone of the transition. But alongside rising demand, the industry is confronting a more complex reality shaped by supply insecurity, resource nationalism, recycling constraints, sustainability expectations, and rapidly evolving policy frameworks. At the BME Conclave 2026, industry leaders and policymakers explored how these shifts are redefining the future of metals and recycling in India and globally.

Speaking at the conclave, Mayur Karmakar, Managing Director, International Copper Association, India,underscored that copper’s growth story must be viewed through two lenses: quantity and quality. He noted that while India’s copper market has expanded more than fortyfold in rupee terms over the past two decades, volume growth has been closer to fourfold, signalling both the scale of opportunity and the need for deeper structural capacity.

Tracing copper’s role from ancient civilisation to modern development, Karmakar said the metal remains central to human progress, powering today’s data centres, decarbonisation efforts, electric vehicles and clean-energy transition. India, he explained, is entering a phase where rising per-capita income and industrialisation are expected to drive exponential demand, with the Ministry of Mines’ vision pointing to nearly fivefold growth in copper demand by 2047.

“India already recycles more than 90% of its end-of-life copper,” Karmakar noted, while cautioning that global scrap availability will remain constrained even as demand accelerates. He highlighted resource nationalism, raw material security, material efficiency, carbon footprint reduction, responsible production and circularity as the defining themes for the industry moving forward.

Karmakar also pointed to global competition for critical minerals, China’s growing advantage in above-ground copper resources, and technology-led efforts such as EV platforms reducing copper intensity as signs of a rapidly evolving market. Sustainability, he stressed, will increasingly determine value, with frameworks such as the Copper Mark and emerging LME sustainability premiums recognising responsible production across labour practices, transparency, taxation, ESG standards and circularity. For India’s copper sector, he concluded, the next phase of growth will not only be about producing more metal, but producing it responsibly, efficiently and sustainably across the entire value chain, from mining and smelting to recycling, tailings management and landfill reduction.

Demand growth meets supply constraints

Building on this broader outlook, Sachin Gupta, CEO, Trafigura, India, outlined that the global economy is entering a decisively metals-intensive phase, underpinned by structural shifts in energy, technology and industrial systems, with demand driven by power generation, EV adoption, data centres, shipbuilding and broader manufacturing growth. He highlighted strong long-term consumption trajectories for core industrial metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc, alongside the increasing strategic importance of battery metals including lithium, nickel and cobalt, as well as critical and minor metals such as antimony, germanium and rare earths. According to Gupta, emerging sectors alone could contribute 24–45% of incremental metals demand by 2035.

Focusing on copper, Gupta emphasised that while demand is expected to rise significantly, from around 27 million tonnes to nearly 36 million tonnes by 2035, the key constraint lies not in smelting capacity but in copper concentrate availability. “The challenge is not processing capacity, but securing raw material supply,” he outlined, pointing to negative treatment and refining charges and the requirement for nearly four million tonnes of additional concentrate supply, necessitating substantial and long-lead mining investments.

On aluminium, Gupta noted that raw material availability is not the primary concern. Instead, the challenge lies in scaling production capacity to meet rising demand, with India expected to play a meaningful role in future growth. On zinc, he pointed to similar mining-side constraints as copper, although with relatively moderate demand growth, partly influenced by cost dynamics in end-use applications such as galvanised steel.

He also contextualized these trends geographically, describing China as a dominant force, multiples ahead in production, consumption and per-capita metrics, while indicating that incremental demand growth will increasingly come from the rest of the world, including India, even as global competition for resources intensifies. Overall, Gupta framed metals not just as commodities, but as critical enablers of the global energy transition and industrial future, with supply security and investment cycles emerging as defining challenges for the coming decades.

Recycling policies, EPR and global regulatory pressures

The conversation then shifted from macro demand trends to the structural and regulatory realities shaping India’s recycling ecosystem. In a session moderated by Dr. Sandeep Vakharia,Honorary Secretary of the Bombay Non-Ferrous Metals Association (BNMA) and Managing Director of Aashumi Chemicals, speakers offered a layered and candid assessment of the sector’s EPR policy journey, operational bottlenecks and emerging global challenges.

Sanjay Mehta, President of the Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI), set the tone with a historical perspective, underscoring that the industry’s current standing is the result of over 16 years of sustained and coordinated advocacy with the Government of India. He highlighted how MRAI’s efforts, alongside other associations, contributed to key policy changes, including the progressive reduction of import duties on ferrous scrap from 35% to zero, as well as duty rationalisation across metals such as zinc, lead, brass and, more recently, copper. He also emphasized the association's evolution from a metal-focused body into a broader recycling platform encompassing e-waste, tyres, plastics, oils and batteries, guided in part by NITI Aayog.

While acknowledging the sector’s growing influence across more than 12 ministries, Mehta firmly rejected the idea of granting recyclers formal professional titles. “Recycling needs industry status more than professional titles,” he argued, pointing out that unlike fields such as medicine or engineering, the sector still lacks standardised academic pathways and certification regimes.

Adding a policy and technical dimension to the discussion, Dr. Anupam Agnihotri, Director, Jawaharlal Nehru Aluminium Development and Design Center (JNARDDC), noted that while multiple policy recommendations have been developed, implementation has been uneven, with only select initiatives, such as import monitoring schemes, seeing full execution.

Importantly, Agnihotri highlighted a strategic shift in the government’s focus from base metals towards critical minerals, particularly through incentives linked to e-waste recovery. Despite this progress, he characterised the Indian recycling ecosystem as “robust” but still predominantly informal, with formalisation emerging as the central policy priority movingforward.

From a global trade and regulatory standpoint, Dhawal Shah, Managing Partner, Metco Ventures, explained that while mechanisms such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could create opportunities by increasing demand for low-carbon inputs such as scrap, the more pressing concern lies in the EU’s Waste Shipment Regulation, set to come into force in May 2027.

Shah detailed how India’s heavy reliance on imported scrap, often accounting for 70–80% of raw material needs, with Europe contributing around 20–22%, could expose the industry to significant disruption as new requirements around audits, certification and digital compliance may restrict access. He further underscored that parallel constraints in regions like the Middle East could exacerbate supply vulnerabilities, while warning that overly rigid domestic standards such as BIS on scrap risk undermining the flexibility and efficiency that underpin India’s recycling advantage.

Industry formalization and the road ahead

Providing an industry-specific execution lens, Amol Mehra, President and Chief Procurement Officer, Exide Industries, reflected on the evolution of Extended Producer Responsibility in battery recycling, describing it as one of the most mature frameworks in India, with recovery efficiencies reaching nearly 90%. He acknowledged improvements in regulatory processes and digital platforms such as the CPCB portal but pointed to persistent structural gaps, including the coexistence of a large informal economy and weak enforcement across the value chain, particularly at the dealer and collection levels.

This, he noted, creates an uneven playing field, placing disproportionate compliance pressure on organised producers while limiting systemic efficiency, and underscoring the need for deeper standardisation and accountability.

On operational realities, Kamlesh Jain, CMD of Jain Resource Recycling, highlighted sourcing and price volatility as the industry’s most pressing challenges. He explained that companies are now compelled to source scrap from over 120 countries while balancing domestic supply, which currently accounts for about 30–40% and is gradually improving through GST-led formalisation. He noted that traditional sourcing corridors are tightening globally due to regulatory shifts, especially for key metals like copper and lead, forcing continuous diversification.

On financial management, Jain stressed the critical importance of disciplined hedging practices, supported by robust technology and specialised teams. He cautioned against speculative approaches and emphasised that hedging should function strictly as a risk-management tool in an environment of sharp commodity price fluctuations.