According to a new study published in the scientific journal Nature, plastic pollution emissions are highest across countries in Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South-eastern Asia, with the largest amount (9.3 Mt year−1) emitted by India, equivalent to nearly one-fifth of global plastic emissions.

India reports that its dumpsites (uncontrolled land disposal) outnumber sanitary landfills by 10:1 and, despite the claim that there is a national collection coverage of 95%, there is evidence that official statistics do not include rural areas, open burning of uncollected waste, or waste recycled by the informal sector. This means that India’s official waste generation rate (approximately 0.12 kilograms per capita per day (kg cap−1 day−1)) is probably underestimated and waste collection overestimated.  

In contrast to previous plastic pollution models that positioned China as the world’s highest plastic polluter, it is ranked fourth in our results, with emissions of 2.8 Mt year−1, less than Nigeria (3.5 Mt year−1) and Indonesia (3.4 Mt year−1). This lower contribution to plastic emissions from China shows its substantial progress in adopting waste incineration and controlled landfill. 

According to researchers at the University of Leeds in the UK, the world creates 57 million tonnes of plastic pollution every year and spreads it from the deepest oceans to the highest mountaintop to the inside of people's bodies. The study also said more than two-thirds of it comes from the Global South.

The data for India indicate a collection coverage of 81%, meaning that nearly 53% (wt.) of the country’s plastic waste emissions (30% wt. debris and 23% wt. open burning) come from the 255 million people (18% of the population) whose waste is uncollected. Most of the remaining emissions (38% wt.) are a result of open burning on dumpsites, where fires are reported to be common. Overall, it estimates that 56.8 Mt year−1 of municipal solid waste is open burned in India, of which 5.8 Mt year−1 is plastic. 

Rural versus urban  

Open burning rather than intact items (debris) is the predominant emission type across most United Nations sub-regions, except for those predominantly in the Global North (Northern America, Northern Europe, Western Europe, and Australia and New Zealand) and Sub-Saharan Africa, where debris emissions (7.4 Mt year−1) are slightly higher than open burning emissions (5.9 Mt year−1). This result is driven by data indicating lower levels of open burning in the rural areas of low-income countries (LICs), of which there are many in the Sub-Saharan Africa region.

High income versus mid, low income

Approximately 69% (35.7 Mt year−1) of the world’s plastic waste emissions come from 20 countries, of which four are LICs, nine are lower middle-income countries (LMCs), and seven are upper middle-income countries (UMCs). Despite high-income countries (HICs) having higher plastic waste generation rates (0.17 kg cap−1 day−1), none are ranked in the top 90 polluters because most have 100% collection coverage and controlled disposal. Furthermore, the study's modelling accounts for the mitigating impact of street sweeping activity on emissions, which is greater in HICs. Plastic waste exports from the top ten Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) exporters to non-OECD countries and Turkey have substantially decreased from nearly 5.4 Mt year−1 in 2017 to less than 1.7 Mt year−1 in 2022, contributing approximately 0.03 Mt year−1 of emissions. Although this might affect some individual country results, the overall effect would be negligible compared to other sources.

Countries in low-income and middle-income categories have much lower plastic waste generation (LICs: 0.04 kg cap−1 day−1; LMCs: 0.07 kg cap−1 day−1; UMCs: 0.10 kg cap−1 day−1). However, in contrast to HICs, a large proportion of it is either uncollected (LICs: 55% wt.; LMCs: 26% wt.; UMCs: 11% wt.) or disposed of in dumpsites (uncontrolled disposal) (LICs: 36% wt.; LMCs: 57% wt.; UMCs: 19% wt.). The nine countries that make up the Southern Asia region emit a similar amount of plastic waste (15.1 Mt year−1) to the 51 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (13.3 Mt year−1), with Nigeria contributing to approximately one-quarter (3.5 Mt year−1) of the Sub-Saharan African burden. Urban areas (cities, towns, and semi-densely populated areas) account for most emissions in all regions because of low rural populations and much lower plastic waste generation. However, the authors acknowledge that notable data gaps on solid waste management in rural communities exist, and future efforts to address plastic pollution must include these often overlooked communities.

Flexible plastic debris has a higher probability of being emitted into the environment in the Global South compared with rigid debris (mean ratio 56:44), driven by its greater prevalence (waste composition) and its propensity for mobilization under the action of wind and surface water. In the Global North (for example, Northern America), the opposite is true (mean ratio 33:67) because rigid plastics are more prevalent in the waste and emissions are driven by littering rather than meteorological forcing, the study finds.